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法国面临债务降级,欧美股市再遇重挫,道指大跌520点  

2011-08-11 08:53:25|  分类: Finance |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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道琼斯指数比前一个交易日重挫519.83点,收于10719.94点,跌幅4.62%;标准普尔500种股票指数大跌51.77点,收于1120.76点,跌幅为4.42%;纳斯达克综合指数跌101.47点,收于2381.05点,跌幅为4.09%。

近期欧美股市大跌, 其实属于正常调整。即使没有美国债务降级,大盘也会大幅回调的,毕竟美国股市从2009年3月开始反弹,几乎上涨一倍。   本人预测回调目标:道琼斯指 9000-9500左右。

 

欧美股市再遇重挫 法国或成下个失去3A评级国家

法国面临债务降级,欧美股市再遇重挫 - 雷国新(Lee Reagan) - 美国留学Lee Reagan的博客 来源:中国新闻网
2011年08月11日07:39
  中新网8月11日电(财经频道 王槊)美国评级下调的连锁反应一发不可收拾。10日美股收盘时欧美股市再陷暴跌,9日的反弹彻底变成虚假繁荣,市场悲观情绪蔓延。与此同时,作为举债比例与美国相近的法国能否保持3A信用评级也开始受到部分人士的质疑。法国总统萨科齐紧急召开高层会议,宣布将于本月24日推出削减公共财政赤字的正式方案。

  欧美股市再暴跌 忧2008金融危机再现

  10日,刚刚在前一个交易日有所反弹的欧美股市再度暴跌。道琼斯30种工业股票平均价格指数开盘就暴跌300点。到临近收盘时,美股加速跳水。到纽约股市收盘时,道琼斯指数比前一个交易日重挫519.83点,收于10719.94点,跌幅4.62%;标准普尔500种股票指数大跌51.77点,收于1120.76点,跌幅为4.42%;纳斯达克综合指数跌101.47点,收于2381.05点,跌幅为4.09%。

  与此同时,欧洲主要股市在当地时间16时后亦直线下跌,德国和意大利股市盘中均跌超过6%。收盘时,英国伦敦《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数报收于5007.16点,比前一交易日下跌157.76点,跌幅为3.05%。巴黎CAC40股指遭遇狂泻,尾盘报收于3002.99点,较前一交易日大跌173.20点,跌幅为5.45%。德国法兰克福股市下跌5.13%,意大利米兰股市下跌6.65%,西班牙马德里股市下跌5.49%。

  据悉,此间传出的希腊救援问题分歧和法国主权信用评级遭降的传闻,成为这一波下跌行情的助推器。有分析人士担心美国市场目前的走势是2008年金融危机的翻版。2008年9月到12月,美国股市在剧烈震荡中一路下滑,有多达27天的起落在4%以上。

  金银价格再创新高 油价止跌反弹

  受市场避险性买盘的持续支撑,纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格10日继续强劲上扬,当天市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每盎司1784.3美元,比前一交易日上涨41.3美元,涨幅为2.4%,盘中最高冲至1801美元。

  10日,9月份交货的白银期货价格大涨1.444美元,收于每盎司39.327美元,涨幅为3.8%。10月份交货的白金期货价格收于每盎司1771.1美元,比前一交易日上涨15.3美元,涨幅为0.87%。

  前一日下跌的油价10日有所上涨。10日收盘时,纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨3.59美元,收于每桶82.89美元,涨幅为4.53%。伦敦市场9月交货的北海布伦特原油期货价格反弹4.11美元,收于每桶106.68美元,涨幅为4.01%。

  法国欠债与美相仿 或成下个失去3A评级国家

  受美国主权信用评级遭下调和欧洲债务危机的冲击,法国能否保持3A信用评级已经受到部分人士的质疑。

  此间舆论认为,在欧元区6个主权信用为3A的国家中,法国可能最不获看好:其与美国的财政体质多少相仿,平均国民负债同为2.5万欧元;法国高达7成债务掌握在外资手里,而美国的比例与法国相近,法美的5年期举债成本同在3.5%息口浮动。法国社会党总统候选人奥朗德表示,当前的危机是欧元区解体,现在已到了刻不容缓的时侯,必须采取强烈、迅速和明确的措施。

  上周五调低美国信用评级的标普认为“法国的预算政策构思良好”,其推动的退休制度改革,虽未收立竿见影之效,但长远来看仍可寄望改善赤字水平。但由于欧洲债务危机前景尚未明朗,法国的国债融资成本也已面临上行压力,对法国信用降级的怀疑声音始终不绝。加之2012年法国总统大选,要实行严格的减赤预算措施,对现任总统萨科齐而言无疑是左右两难的事。还有萨科齐希望的限赤入宪方案要想在议会获得通过,也非轻而易举。

  为此,在地中海度假的法国总统萨科齐10日中断度假返回巴黎,紧急召集总理菲永、外交部长朱佩、财政部长巴鲁安、预算部长佩克雷斯和法国央行行长努瓦耶等政府高层研讨当前经济形势,并宣布将于本月24日推出削减公共财政赤字的正式方案。

Stocks resume sell-off; Dow finishes down 519

Wall Street remembers a world of problems, and Dow plummets again -- now down 2,000 in 3 weeks

ap

Specialist James Ahrens works at his post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday, Aug. 10, 2011. Wall Street focused Wednesday on the bleak landscape ahead for the economy and sold off, wiping out the big gains from a day earlier and then some. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 519 points. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

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Stan Choe, AP Business Writer, On Wednesday August 10, 2011, 7:33 pm

NEW YORK (AP) -- Back to reality and back down, Wall Street focused on the bleak landscape ahead for the economy Wednesday and wiped out its big gains from a day earlier -- and then some.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 519 points and has now lost more than 2,000 in less than three weeks. Swings of several hundred points in just minutes, accelerated by computerized trading, have become commonplace.

This time, the selling was intensified by worries about in Europe. American bank stocks took hits because investors fretted that debt problems overseas might reach the United States.

France came under pressure amid concerns that it could follow the U.S. and become the next country to lose its top AAA rating. The French president cut his vacation short and promised to slash the nation's debts.

The stocks of leading banks in Britain, Italy and Germany were hammered. The fear is that if European governments default on their bonds, it will hurt the European banks that own them.

That could start a chain reaction that hurts the United States because large U.S. banks have loans to European banks. The result on Wall Street, which already has economic problems to worry about, was a dramatic turnaround.

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve said it planned to keep interest rates ultra-low for two more years. After some initial confusion, the stock market staged a huge comeback and had one of its best days.

But the interest-rate news proved to be a distraction. The Fed made the pledge because it sees almost no chance that the economy will improve substantially by 2013, and when investors focused on that, they dumped stocks again.

"Now it gets back to the fundamentals," said Mark Lamkin, founder of Lamkin Wealth Management, which manages $215 million.

The Dow closed at 10,719.94, down 4.6 percent for the day. By points, it was the ninth-steepest decline for the market.

Wednesday was another day marked by big moves. The Dow was down more than 300 points within minutes of the opening bell. It recovered some of that loss, then drifted steadily lower in the last two hours.

The market has traded that way for two weeks, lurching up and down. The most extreme example was Tuesday, when the Dow swung more than 600 points in the one hour and 45 minutes after the Fed's statement.

The stomach-churning highs and lows are reminiscent of the fall of 2008, the depths of the financial crisis, when there were swings of 800 or even 1,000 points in a day.

Computerized trading systems -- programmed to analyze charts, capitalize on the tiniest changes in price and execute trades with no human intervention -- are making the market rougher.

High-frequency trading programs make up about half of the trading volume in a normal market day but 70 percent or more on a volatile one. The programs pounce on stock changes to make just slivers of a penny but do it so often that it adds up.

Other investors also use charts and market indicators to make trades based on market momentum. The bet is that if the market is rising, it will keep rising, and if it's falling, it will keep falling.

More investors are turning to this strategy because the sudden slowdown in the economy has left them unable to judge companies based on their fundamentals, like projected profits. The more people use a momentum strategy, the faster the indexes rise or fall.

The S&P 500 finished the day down 4.4 percent and the Nasdaq composite index down 4.1 percent.

Financial stocks led the market lower. Bank of America and Citigroup each lost more than 10 percent of their market value, in part because of the worries about Europe.

Besides the fear about a chain reaction of debt, Europe is a big market for U.S. companies. It accounted for about 29 percent of foreign sales for S&P 500 companies last year.

"It's the same game of Old Maid playing out in Europe that was played out here during the subprime mortgage crisis," said Quincy Krosby, an economist and market strategist with Prudential Financial.

In one sign that France may be the next country downgraded, the cost of insuring against a default of French government debt hit a record, according to data from Markit.

President Nicolas Sarkozy rushed back from the French Riviera and called an emergency meeting of key ministers after days of mounting warnings from analysts that the credit rating of the world's fifth-biggest economy is at risk.

In Asia, the concern is that higher inflation in China could lead to slower growth. China, Brazil and other less-developed countries have provided the strongest economic growth since the world began to recover from recession in 2009.

Gold rose above $1,800 per ounce for the first time as more money poured into investments considered safe at a volatile time for the financial markets. Gold closed up about $41 at $1,784. It first passed $1,600 only in late May.

The 10-year Treasury note, which has also served as a haven, also rose sharply. Its yield fell to 2.11 percent from 2.26 percent late Tuesday. It had reached a record low of 2.03 percent on Tuesday. A bond's yield falls when its price rises.

Investors have bought U.S. government debt even after S&P stripped the United States of its top credit rating, AAA, late last week.

Nearly three stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Consolidated trading volume was heavier than usual, 8.3 billion shares. In July, average daily volume was less than half that. On Monday, it was 9.9 billion, the highest since September 2008.

Stocks have fallen so far that six companies have withdrawn plans this week to sell stock on U.S. markets for the first time, according to Dealogic. That brings the number of withdrawn initial public offerings, or IPOs, to 65 so far this year. That is the most through this point in the year since 2001.

AP Business Writers Bernard Condon, Matthew Craft, Sarah DiLorenzo and Daniel Wagner contributed to this report.

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