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百年第一刀:标普将美国长期主权信用评级由“AAA”降至“AA+”  

2011-08-06 10:56:08|  分类: Finance |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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标普宣布下调美国主权信用评级

百年第一刀:标普将美国长期主权信用评级由“AAA”降至“AA+” - 雷国新(Lee Reagan) - 美国留学Lee Reagan的博客 来源:新华网
2011年08月06日09:14
[提要] 8月5日,国际评级机构标普将美国长期主权信用评级由“AAA”降至“AA+”,评级展望负面,这是美国历史上首次失去AAA信用评级。标普指出,调降评级主要由于美国政府与国会达成的债务上限协议,缺少标普所预期的举措以维持中期债务稳定。[网友有话说]
美国长期主权信用评级近百年来首次被下调 

  新华网纽约8月5日电(记者乔继红)国际评级机构标准普尔公司5日宣布,将美国AAA级长期主权债务评级下调一级至AA+,评级前景展望为“负面”。这是美国历史上第一次丧失3A主权信用评级。

  标普表示,维持评级前景展望“负面”意味着在未来12个月到18个月内仍有下调美国信用评级的可能。该评级机构在声明中说,“我们认为国会和政府最近达成的财政紧缩协议不足以稳定政府的中期债务状况”。

  美国总统奥巴马最近签署提高美国债务上限和削减政府开支的法案,决定在未来十年内削减政府开支2.1万亿到2.4万亿美元。但这一目标与标普之前预期的4万亿美元相差很远。

  标普是三大评级机构中第一家下调美国主权信用评级的评级机构。目前穆迪投资者服务公司和惠誉公司都维持对美国的AAA评级,但评级前景展望为“负面”。

  5日当天,市场上关于标普可能下调美国信用评级的传言一度让美股下跌。专家预计,此番下调将影响消费者心理,导致美国借贷成本上升。

  更多新闻:

  美国主权信用评级遭历史性降级 影响深远

  《纽约时报》断定:美国经济双底衰退“正在发生”

United States loses AAA credit rating from S&P

reuters

A trader stands outside the New York Stock Exchange following the end of the trading day, August 4, 2011. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

On Friday August 5, 2011, 9:53 pm

By Walter Brandimarte

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The United States lost its top-notch AAA credit rating from Standard & Poor's on Friday in an unprecedented reversal of fortune for the world's largest economy.

S&P cut the long-term U.S. credit rating by one notch to AA-plus on concerns about the government's budget deficits and rising debt burden. The move is likely to raise borrowing costs eventually for the American government, companies and consumers.

"The downgrade reflects our opinion that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration recently agreed to falls short of what, in our view, would be necessary to stabilize the government's medium-term debt dynamics," S&P said in a statement.

The decision follows a fierce political battle in Congress over cutting spending and raising taxes to reduce the government's debt burden and allow its statutory borrowing limit to be raised.

On August 2, President Barack Obama signed legislation designed to reduce the fiscal deficit by $2.1 trillion over 10 years. But that was well short of the $4 trillion in savings S&P had called for as a good "down payment" on fixing America's finances.

The White House maintained silence in the immediate aftermath of S&P downgrade.

The political gridlock in Washington and the failure to seriously address U.S. long-term fiscal problems came against the backdrop of slowing U.S. economic growth and led to the worst week in the U.S. stock market in two years.

The S&P 500 stock index fell 10.8 percent in the past 10 trading days on concerns that the U.S. economy may head into another recession and because the European debt crisis has been growing worse as it spreads to Italy.

U.S. Treasury bonds, once undisputedly seen as the safest security in the world, are now rated lower than bonds issued by countries such as Britain, Germany, France or Canada.

'DAUNTING' IMPLICATIONS

As the focus for investors shifted from the debate in Washington to the outlook for the global economy, even with the prospect of a downgrade, 30-year long bonds had their best week since December 2008 during the depth of the financial crisis.

Yields on 10-year notes, a benchmark for borrowing rates throughout the economy fell as far as 2.34 percent on Friday -- their lowest since October 2010 -- also very low by historical standards.

"To some extent, I would expect when Tokyo opens on Sunday, that we will see an initial knee-jerk sell-off (in Treasuries) followed by a rally," said Ian Lyngen, senior government bond strategist at CRT Capital Group in Stamford, Connecticut.

The outlook on the new U.S. credit rating is "negative," S&P said in a statement, a sign that another downgrade is possible in the next 12 to 18 months.

"The long-term implications are daunting. Short-term, Treasuries remain a premier safe-haven refuge," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.

BORROWING COSTS COULD RISE

The impact of S&P's move was tempered by a decision from Moody's Investors Service earlier this week that confirmed, for now, the U.S. Aaa rating. Fitch Ratings said it is still reviewing the rating and will issue its opinion by the end of the month.

"It's not entirely unexpected. I believe it has already been partly priced into the dollar. We expect some further pressure on the U.S. dollar, but a sharp sell-off is in our view unlikely," said Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.

"One of the reasons we don't really think foreign investors will start selling U.S. Treasuries aggressively is because there are still few alternatives to the U.S. Treasury market in terms of depth and liquidity," Serebriakov added.

S&P's move is also likely to concern foreign creditors especially China, which holds more than $1 trillion of U.S. debt. Beijing has repeatedly urged Washington to protect its U.S. dollar investments by addressing its budget problem.

Obama administration officials grew increasingly frustrated with the rating agency through the debt limit debate and have accused S&P of changing the goal posts in its downgrade warnings, sources familiar with talks between the administration and the ratings firm have said.

The downgrade could add up to 0.7 of a percentage point to U.S. Treasuries' yields over time, increasing funding costs for public debt by some $100 billion, according to SIFMA, a U.S. securities industry trade group.

S&P had placed the U.S. credit rating on review for a possible downgrade on July 14 on concerns that Congress was not adequately addressing the government fiscal deficit of about $1.4 trillion this year, or about 9.0 percent of gross domestic product, one of the highest since World War II.

The unprecedented downgrade of the nation's AAA credit rating by a major ratings agency comes only 15 months before the next presidential election where the downgrade and the debt will be top issues for debate.

Bitter political battles remain over the ideologically fraught issues of spending cuts and tax reform.

The compromise reached by Republicans and Democrats this week calls for the creation of a bipartisan congressional committee to find $1.5 trillion of deficit cuts by late November, beyond the $917 billion already identified.

(Additional reporting by Daniel Bases; Editing by Jan Paschal and Clive McKeef)

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